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Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser warned on Monday, October 5, that global oil inventories have become dangerously depleted after months of disruption to Middle Eastern supplies, and could take as long as two years to rebuild even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes. Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, he said the market’s remaining supply cushion was “scarily thin.”
Nasser said the seven-month conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran had reduced regional oil supply by nearly 3 billion barrels. More than 1 billion barrels had since been drawn from reserves to offset the shortfall, he said, leaving the market increasingly reliant on the recovery of regular production and exports.
Emergency reserves offer only temporary relief
Governments have released more than 300 million barrels from strategic reserves, according to Nasser, and G7 nations agreed on Friday to make a further 100 million barrels of crude and diesel available. The agreed release is intended to ease immediate supply pressure, but it does not restore the oil that has been lost or guarantee that shipments can move freely.
Nasser said commercial inventories held by companies were the largest remaining source of supply support. He estimated that less than 6 billion barrels of commercial stocks remained globally, while cautioning that most were not practically accessible. He described reserve releases as a way to buy time, not a solution to the underlying mismatch between supply and demand.
The distinction matters because oil held in storage is not necessarily available where and when refiners need it. The reported figures cover different types of reserves and stockpiles, and the available reporting does not provide a detailed breakdown of how much can be delivered quickly to affected markets.
Hormuz disruption keeps pressure on shipments
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical export route for Gulf energy supplies. Nasser said pressure on crude and refined products would intensify until the waterway fully reopened and confidence in shipping returned. His warning came as reports of attacks on vessels and energy infrastructure kept security concerns in the foreground.
There were signs of a partial recovery in shipments. Data provider Kpler estimated that Gulf-country oil exports rose to 15.5 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the conflict began and more than 80% of pre-conflict volumes. Those flows have not removed market tightness: Reuters reported that physical North Sea crude cargoes for delivery this month had reached their highest prices since April.
Refined fuels are under particular strain. Nasser said fuel prices had risen more sharply than crude prices, while same-day market reporting noted a rise in gasoil futures amid concerns about limited product supply in Asia. Crude availability alone does not immediately resolve shortages of diesel and other fuels, which also depend on refining and transportation.
Saudi Arabia relies on routes beyond Hormuz
Saudi Arabia has been able to redirect some crude through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, helping it maintain exports when Gulf shipping has been disrupted. The National reported that flows on the pipeline had returned to about 80% of capacity after a temporary halt following an attack. Nasser said Aramco was examining additional export routes and overseas storage to reduce reliance on any single route.
Aramco said it could make its maximum sustainable production capacity of 12 million barrels per day available within days, according to Nasser’s remarks at the conference. That capacity claim is separate from the question of how much oil can be transported and delivered through disrupted routes. Nasser also said the company’s system remained intact and could shift or isolate output as needed.
Inventory recovery could extend beyond reopening
Nasser’s estimate that rebuilding stocks may take up to two years underscores the lag between restoring transit and replenishing buffers. A reopened shipping route could allow exports to recover, but it would not instantly replace barrels already consumed from strategic and commercial reserves. The reports did not specify a precise timetable for reopening the Strait of Hormuz or provide a detailed inventory-rebuilding schedule.
For now, governments’ planned releases, rising Gulf exports and Saudi Arabia’s alternative pipeline route are providing partial support. But Nasser’s assessment is that those measures leave little spare resilience if further interruptions occur, while the pace of recovery will depend on secure shipping and a sustained return of regional supply.
