Updated:
Bitcoin traded above $85,000 on Monday, October 5, after briefly approaching $87,000, as traders weighed weaker-than-expected U.S. employment figures against Treasury yields that remained elevated. The largest cryptocurrency was up about 1.1% at $85,929.40 at 2:27 a.m. Eastern time, after reaching $86,995.40 earlier in the session, according to Investing.com.
The move followed Friday’s September jobs report, which showed employers added 29,000 jobs, well below economists’ expectations of about 90,000. The data reduced market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase this month, but Bitcoin struggled to hold gains above $87,000 as bond yields recovered and inflation concerns persisted.
Weak hiring shifts rate expectations
The U.S. Labor Department’s report also revised combined payroll growth for July and August down by 60,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% in August, while average hourly earnings rose 3% from a year earlier—the smallest annual increase since May 2021, the Associated Press reported.
Markets interpreted the figures as reducing the case for further tightening, rather than as confirmation that the Federal Reserve is ready to lower rates. Investing.com reported that futures markets put the probability of an October rate hike below 20%, down sharply from the previous week. The employment report gives policymakers evidence of slower hiring, while persistent inflation remains a constraint on any move toward easier policy.
That distinction matters for Bitcoin because investors often treat it as a risk-sensitive asset whose price can respond to expectations about interest rates and liquidity. Lower expected rates can support demand for assets perceived as riskier, but the jobs figures alone do not establish that borrowing costs will fall.
Yields and inflation risks limit the rally
The 10-year Treasury yield briefly slipped below 5.17% after the jobs data, then rebounded to roughly 5.28%, according to the reports. Investing.com said that recovery in yields helped cap Bitcoin’s advance. Higher yields can make interest-bearing assets more attractive relative to assets that do not pay a yield, while also reflecting investors’ expectations about inflation, government borrowing and monetary policy.
Oil prices added another source of uncertainty. Investing.com reported that Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel amid conflict in the Middle East, raising concerns that energy costs could keep inflation elevated. If inflation remains stubborn, the Fed may have less room to ease policy even as hiring cools.
The dollar also remained relatively firm, a further headwind noted by Investing.com. A stronger dollar can make dollar-priced assets less accessible to some overseas buyers, although the report did not quantify the effect on Bitcoin trading.
Bitcoin has yet to sustain a break above $87,000
Bitcoin had also briefly crossed $87,000 after Friday’s employment report, but gave back some of those gains as yields rebounded. Monday’s intraday high near $86,995.40 again approached that level without establishing a sustained move above it, according to Investing.com.
There was some support from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The funds recorded net inflows of $102.7 million on October 1 and $189.8 million on October 2, based on SoSoValue data cited by Investing.com. Those figures cover two sessions and do not, by themselves, establish a longer-term trend in investor demand.
Other major cryptocurrencies were mixed to higher in Monday trading. Ethereum rose 0.7% to $2,715.88, XRP gained 1.3% to $1.52 and Solana was little changed, while Cardano advanced 10.6% to $0.2707, its highest level since May, Investing.com reported.
The next policy decision is the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, but the available reporting did not specify a scheduled announcement or any official guidance tied to Bitcoin’s price. For now, the market backdrop remains divided: the weak hiring report eased rate-hike expectations, while firm yields, inflation risks and a strong dollar continued to weigh on the cryptocurrency’s attempt to hold gains.
