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U.S. electricity consumption is forecast to reach new annual highs in 2026 and 2027 as demand from data centers, including facilities serving artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, combines with rising electricity use in homes and businesses, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.
The EIA’s October 6 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects consumption of 4,288 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 and 4,356 billion kilowatt-hours in 2027, up from a record 4,195 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025. The forecast points to continued growth in electricity demand even as the agency expects generation from renewable sources to increase its share of the U.S. power mix.
Data centers and electrification add to demand
The EIA and Reuters attributed the broader demand increase to data-center growth, including facilities used for AI and cryptocurrency, alongside electrification in homes and businesses. The shift toward electricity for heating and transportation is another factor identified in the reporting; the outlook does not isolate how much of total growth comes from any one of these drivers.
Commercial-sector electricity demand, which includes data centers, is projected to grow 2.8% year over year in 2027. Industrial demand is forecast to increase 2.7%, while residential consumption is expected to remain broadly unchanged from 2026, according to the EIA.
The agency also reported that U.S. electricity consumption in the third quarter of 2026 rose 4% from a year earlier. Residential use increased 6% and commercial use 5%; the EIA linked the quarter’s higher demand, particularly for cooling, to hot summer weather.
Residential and commercial sales set records
In the EIA forecast cited by Reuters, 2026 electricity sales are projected at 1,541 billion kilowatt-hours for residential customers and 1,549 billion for commercial customers. Both would exceed their 2025 records: 1,515 billion kilowatt-hours for residential sales and 1,493 billion for commercial sales.
Industrial sales are forecast at 1,055 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, below the sector’s all-time high of 1,064 billion in 2000. The figures distinguish sales to customer groups from total U.S. electricity consumption, which also reflects the way the EIA accounts for power across the system.
Generation mix shifts while demand rises
The EIA’s outlook projects total U.S. electricity generation of 4,545 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 and 4,613 billion in 2027, compared with 4,430 billion in 2025. The agency expects renewable sources to supply about 25% of generation in 2026 and 27% in 2027, up from roughly 24% in 2025.
Coal’s share is forecast to decline from 17% in 2025 to 16% in 2026 and 15% in 2027. Natural gas is projected to provide 40% in 2026, matching 2025, before easing to 39% the following year; nuclear power is expected to hold an 18% share in both forecast years.
These are projections, not confirmed outcomes. The EIA said the October outlook was completed on October 1 and reflects the assumptions and information available by then; it is scheduled to issue its next Short-Term Energy Outlook on November 10.
Wholesale prices vary by region
The agency forecasts average wholesale electricity prices across the 11 hubs it tracks at $52 per megawatt-hour in 2026, 11% above 2025, and $49 per megawatt-hour in 2027. It cited weather, including winter storm Fern and high summer temperatures, as contributing to higher prices in some markets this year.
Price movements are not uniform. The EIA expects prices in the PJM region, covering parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, to rise 41% in 2026 from 2025, while prices at the Northwest Mid-Columbia hub are forecast to fall 23%. Wholesale prices are only one component of household electricity bills, which also include costs such as transmission and distribution, the agency noted.
