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UBS raised its forecasts for European natural-gas prices through 2027, citing continued disruption to liquefied natural gas exports from the Gulf and tighter European storage. The bank now expects the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark to average €75 per megawatt-hour in the fourth quarter of 2026, up from €62 previously, according to an Investing.com report published on October 6.
For 2027, UBS lifted its TTF forecast to €45 per megawatt-hour from €40. The revisions point to the persistence of supply concerns into the coming year, even as the bank’s base case anticipates negotiations progressing toward year-end and supporting steadier shipping and LNG flows. UBS expects the recovery in LNG supply to take longer than the recovery in oil.
Forecast increases are concentrated in 2026 and 2027
The revised fourth-quarter 2026 TTF estimate is also expressed by UBS as $25 per million British thermal units, while the 2027 forecast is $15 per million British thermal units. The report says the bank made similar adjustments to the Japan-Korea Marker, an Asian LNG benchmark, while keeping its forecast at a $1 premium over TTF.
UBS left its longer-term European price assumptions broadly unchanged: €30 per megawatt-hour in 2028, €22 in 2029 and €21 in 2030. That contrast suggests the reported changes are focused on nearer-term tightness rather than a wholesale repricing of the bank’s longer-range outlook.
Storage and Gulf supply shape the outlook
UBS linked its higher European estimates to continued Gulf LNG export disruption and tighter storage across the European Union. The report did not provide a specific EU inventory figure or quantify how much of the forecast revision is attributable to each factor. It also did not identify a particular export facility or shipping route in the account of the bank’s assessment.
Independent regional context points to the importance of the storage challenge. The EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators has said that lower starting inventories, continued market volatility linked to the Middle East conflict and constraints on available supply increase pressure to replenish storage ahead of winter 2026–27. ACER has also highlighted competition with Asia for flexible LNG cargoes as a factor that can make storage filling more difficult and costly.
The International Energy Agency’s third-quarter 2026 gas-market outlook used an assumption that the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen in the third quarter and that undamaged regional facilities would be fully restored by early in the fourth quarter. Under that scenario, LNG deliveries from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates would ramp up progressively between July and October. UBS’s view that LNG supply may recover more slowly than oil underscores the risk that the return of energy exports will not be uniform across fuels.
Russian gas phase-out remains part of the balance
UBS also cited the phase-out of Russian gas as a continuing source of market tightness. The European Commission’s REPowerEU timetable provides for Russian LNG imports to end by the close of 2026 and Russian pipeline-gas imports by the end of 2027. Those dates mean the shift away from Russian supplies overlaps with the period covered by the bank’s higher forecasts.
The forecast increase does not establish that European buyers will face a physical shortage. It is UBS’s price outlook, based on the supply and storage conditions described in the report; the article did not give a detailed alternative scenario for a faster Gulf recovery or weaker demand. Nor did the reporting specify a new price target beyond 2030.
U.S. forecast moves lower
UBS’s adjustment was not a broad increase in gas-price expectations across all regions. For the United States, it cut its Henry Hub forecast to $3.50 per million British thermal units for both the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2027, from about $3.80 previously.
The divergence in the reported revisions places the bank’s near-term emphasis on European and Asian exposure to constrained internationally traded LNG, while lowering its U.S. benchmark assumption. UBS expects negotiations to advance toward year-end under its base case, but the report does not specify a resolution date or a schedule for restoring Gulf exports. The timing and pace of that recovery, alongside storage levels and the Russian-gas phase-out, remain central uncertainties in the forecast.
