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Global oil consumption reached a reported record of 105 million barrels a day in 2025, but cars and fuel stations capture only part of the picture. A report from UBS, summarized by Investing.com on October 3, said transportation accounted for slightly more than half of demand, while petrochemicals and other industrial uses, buildings and power generation accounted for much of the rest.
The breakdown matters to energy markets because electric vehicles and improved efficiency may curb gasoline and diesel use without eliminating demand for oil-derived materials or fuels used in aviation and industry. UBS expects global demand to keep rising into the 2030s, with population growth, urbanization and higher living standards in emerging economies offsetting some of the effects of efficiency improvements and EV adoption.
Road travel is a major share, not the whole market
UBS’s figures put passenger vehicles at 27% of global oil demand and road freight at 18%. Aviation accounted for 7%, shipping 4%, and rail and waterways 2%, according to the report. Together, those listed transport uses illustrate why drivers’ gasoline consumption is an incomplete measure of the world’s reliance on oil.
The figures also separate oil use by end market from the everyday products made with petroleum feedstocks. The International Energy Agency says crude oil is generally refined into products including gasoline, diesel, kerosene and heavy fuel oil, while some petroleum products are used for asphalt, lubricants and raw materials for plastics.
Petrochemicals link oil demand to everyday goods
UBS estimated petrochemicals at 15% of oil demand and other industrial uses at 13%. Petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas and ethane are used to make plastics, synthetic fibers, packaging and chemicals, among other products. Those applications mean oil demand is linked not only to miles traveled but also to manufacturing and consumption of materials.
The IEA has likewise described petrochemicals as a growing source of oil demand. In its 2025 oil-market outlook, it said the sector was expected to become the dominant source of global oil-demand growth from 2026, as transport and power generation diversify toward other fuels. The agency also cautioned that demand patterns vary by feedstock: some petrochemical production uses natural gas liquids rather than conventional refinery products.
Emerging economies are central to the forecast
UBS identified emerging markets as the main prospective source of additional demand and said India could increasingly replace China as a major driver. The report cited India’s demographic profile, economic expansion and lower oil use per person. Its estimates put Indian consumption at about 0.6 liters per person per day, compared with roughly 1.9 liters in China.
UBS also pointed to relatively low per-capita consumption in Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria, arguing that rising incomes and urbanization could lift use. These comparisons are indicators of differing consumption patterns, not precise forecasts of future demand: actual totals will also depend on economic growth, efficiency, infrastructure, policy and the pace of substitution by other fuels.
Efficiency and electric vehicles complicate the outlook
The report expects electric vehicles and improved fuel efficiency eventually to restrain gasoline and diesel demand, with those fuels likely to peak sometime over the next decade. It did not give a single specific peak year in the material summarized by Investing.com. UBS instead highlighted potential growth outside road transport, including petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel.
The IEA’s 2025 outlook offers a useful comparison, though its projections are not the same as UBS’s. The agency forecast global oil demand reaching a plateau near 105.5 million barrels a day by 2030 under its stated policy and market assumptions, while identifying petrochemicals as the leading source of growth from 2026. The differing outlooks underline that demand estimates depend on assumptions about economic activity, transport electrification and industrial feedstock use.
Per-capita figures need context
National consumption statistics can be misleading when oil is sold or used to serve activity beyond a country’s residents. UBS noted Singapore’s unusually high reported per-capita use, attributing it to the city-state’s role as a marine-fuel bunkering center and aviation hub. That example shows why dividing national oil totals by population does not necessarily measure household consumption.
The report’s central point is that oil remains embedded in both mobility and the production of goods. The 105-million-barrel daily figure is a measure of total global consumption, while its sector shares describe different uses; neither alone specifies how quickly demand will change. UBS’s cited outlook points to continued growth into the 2030s, but the timing and scale remain a forecast rather than an established outcome.
