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Barclays downgraded Fraport and Athens International Airport to Underweight on Tuesday, October 6, warning that airlines are likely to restrain winter capacity unless fuel prices fall sharply. The bank cited weaker traffic expectations and valuation concerns in its latest assessment of European airport operators.
Barclays cut its price target for Frankfurt operator Fraport to €57 from €68, while moving its rating to Underweight from Equal Weight. Athens International Airport also fell to Underweight from Equal Weight, although Barclays raised its target to €10.95 from €10.70. The contrasting target changes reflect different concerns: weaker operating forecasts at Fraport and, in Athens, a share-price rise the bank considers difficult to justify.
Winter capacity shapes the outlook
Barclays expects airlines to reduce planned capacity during the coming winter unless fuel prices retreat substantially. It pointed to recent bankruptcy-protection filings by airBaltic, Volotea and AnimaWings, and said it expected further failures among smaller carriers. The report did not identify which airlines might be next or quantify the expected scale of capacity reductions.
For airport operators, the concern is that fewer flights can constrain passenger volumes and related revenue. Barclays said Lufthansa was concentrating on improving revenue per unit and would probably remain cautious about capacity this winter. Condor, which has contributed to Frankfurt traffic growth over the previous 18 months, may also become more cautious while fuel prices remain high.
The bank’s assessment makes airline decisions a key near-term uncertainty for airports. It did not provide a timetable for when carriers would finalize winter schedules, nor did it specify a fuel-price level at which its capacity outlook would change.
Fraport forecasts lowered
Barclays reduced its forecasts for passenger traffic at Frankfurt Airport to 63.0 million in 2026 and 65.3 million in 2027. Its previous estimates were 63.2 million and 66.5 million, respectively. The revised projections reflect a weaker outlook for the airport’s passenger base.
The bank also cut its underlying EBITDA estimates for Fraport by 2% for 2026 and 4% for 2027, to €1.40 billion and €1.54 billion. It lowered adjusted earnings-per-share forecasts by 11% and 29%, respectively. Barclays forecast third-quarter underlying EBITDA of €553 million, 8% below Bloomberg consensus cited in its report.
Barclays said it had raised its labor-cost assumptions partly because the year-earlier comparison included a favorable one-off. It also highlighted new terminals in Frankfurt and Lima as sources of higher depreciation and interest costs below EBITDA. The report did not provide separate estimates of the contribution from those costs.
Athens valuation and airport concession
Athens airport shares had gained about 20% since September 1, while the STOXX 600 had fallen roughly 2.5%, according to Barclays. The bank said it suspected index-related buying had contributed to the share-price strength and judged the stock overvalued, with its raised €10.95 target still implying about 10% downside.
The higher target does not indicate a more optimistic near-term earnings view. Barclays said it reduced its assumed cost of equity to 7.6% from 7.9% after Greece moved from emerging-market to developed-market status. It also noted that Athens International Airport is bidding for a 40-year concession covering 22 regional Greek airports that together serve 2.4 million passengers. Barclays said the outcome was uncertain and did not materially alter its near-term earnings outlook.
Ratings diverge across the sector
Barclays maintained Overweight ratings on Aéroports de Paris, or ADP, and Spain’s Aena, while retaining Equal Weight on Zurich Airport. It left its ADP target at €150 and said its 2026 EBITDA forecast was marginally below company guidance after including an estimated additional infrastructure-tax charge of about €40 million. The bank identified ADP’s effort to secure an eight-year economic regulation agreement in November as a focus for investors.
For Aena, Barclays kept its €28.50 target and forecast Spanish passenger traffic growth of 4.5% in the third quarter. Its estimates for quarterly revenue of €2.02 billion and EBITDA of €1.35 billion were 2% and 6% above Bloomberg consensus, respectively. For Zurich Airport, Barclays cut its target to 200 Swiss francs from 215 francs, citing weaker traffic and international earnings expectations, including a slower passenger ramp-up at Noida.
At Frankfurt, Barclays said Fraport was likely to retain its ground-handling contract with Lufthansa because no operationally ready alternatives were available. However, the bank did not expect the contract to guarantee a material earnings improvement. It noted that higher handling charges would raise Lufthansa’s cost per turn at Frankfurt compared with its other hubs, and assessed that Lufthansa had more negotiating leverage than Fraport had anticipated.
