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U.S. electricity consumption is forecast to reach a new annual record in both 2026 and 2027, rising to 4,288 billion kilowatt-hours this year and 4,356 billion kilowatt-hours next year, according to the Energy Information Administration’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Tuesday, October 6. The agency’s figures compare with an estimated 4,195 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025.
The forecast puts data-center growth, including facilities serving artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency operations, among the forces behind rising demand. The EIA’s report itself groups data centers within the commercial sector and projects that sector’s demand will continue growing in 2027. It also points to recent weather-related consumption and changing energy use in homes and businesses as relevant parts of the outlook.
Commercial and industrial demand underpin the 2027 outlook
The EIA expects commercial-sector electricity sales to increase from 1,549 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 to 1,592 billion in 2027. Its narrative forecast says commercial demand, which includes data centers, will grow 2.8% year over year in 2027. Industrial-sector sales are projected to rise from 1,055 billion kilowatt-hours this year to 1,083 billion next year, a 2.7% increase.
Residential sales are projected to reach 1,541 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, then ease slightly to 1,534 billion in 2027. The EIA said residential consumption is expected to remain mostly unchanged next year. Taken together, the forecasts show that the anticipated increase is not attributed to data centers alone: commercial and industrial use contribute to growth, while residential demand is comparatively flat.
The agency’s October tables put total electricity consumption at 4,195 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, 4,288 billion in 2026 and 4,356 billion in 2027. These totals include direct use as well as electricity sales to residential, commercial, industrial and transportation customers, so they are broader than retail sales alone.
Weather lifted recent use, while the annual forecast looks beyond summer
The EIA reported that nationwide electricity consumption in the third quarter of 2026 was 4% higher than in the same quarter a year earlier. It attributed part of the increase to a hot summer and greater cooling needs; residential consumption rose 6% and commercial consumption 5% in the quarter, according to the agency.
That recent weather-driven rise is distinct from the EIA’s longer annual projection. Its outlook expects residential electricity demand to stay near 2026 levels in 2027, while commercial and industrial consumption continue to expand. The report does not quantify how much of the projected national increase comes specifically from artificial-intelligence workloads, and it does not break out AI data centers as a separate category in the figures cited.
Generation mix shifts as consumption grows
The EIA forecasts that electricity generation will also rise, reaching 4,613 billion kilowatt-hours in 2027, compared with 4,430 billion in 2025. Its generation mix projection shows natural gas accounting for 39% of generation in 2027, down from 40% in 2025 and 2026. Coal’s share is projected to decline from 17% in 2025 to 15% in 2027.
Renewables’ share is forecast to increase from about 24% in 2025 to 27% in 2027, while nuclear power is projected to hold at 18% in both 2026 and 2027. These are EIA estimates, not final outcomes; the figures describe a forecast of how supply may develop alongside the projected rise in use.
Price outlook differs from the demand trend
In the same outlook, the EIA projects average wholesale electricity prices across the 11 hubs it tracks will rise to $52 per megawatt-hour in 2026, then edge down to $49 in 2027. It said prices in 2026 had been affected by winter storm Fern and high summer temperatures, while regional outcomes vary. Wholesale prices are only one component of retail bills, which also include transmission, distribution and, in some regions, capacity costs.
The forecast is conditional and subject to revision as new data, weather and demand estimates become available. The next Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for November 10, 2026, according to the EIA. For now, the October projection establishes the agency’s current expectation: electricity use will reach record annual levels in each of the next two years, with commercial and industrial growth outpacing residential demand in 2027.
